Power prices rise as weather forecasts turn bullish

Last week, gas prices rose above 50 €/MWh due to a combination of factors. 2 weeks ago the German government announced plans to consider subsidizing the filling of German gas storage facilities. On the other hand, temperature forecasts for early February dropped. As a result, gas prices increased by almost 4 euros, with February and March contracts settling at 53.5 €/MWh and 53.2 €/MWh, respectively. Gas storage levels in the Netherlands were under 40% full, while Germany’s gas storage levels stood at around 55%. CO2 prices also rose, with the December contract closing 2 euros higher at 83.9 €/EUA.
Dutch power contracts became more expensive as well. February rose by about 13 euros, closing at 128 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for February, which had been significantly negative in mid-January, improved to around -4 €/MWh. Coal prices remained relatively stable, though the gap in variable costs between gas and coal-fired plants widened considerably. Coal plants are currently much cheaper and are running continuously.
At the start of the week, there was relatively high wind generation in both the Netherlands and Germany. However, wind generation dropped entirely by midweek, causing prices to rise again. The average Dutch spot price for the week was 113.3 €/MWh. The interconnector with the United Kingdom, which had been out of service for almost two months, became operational again early in the week.

Gas prices for 2026 rose by 1.5 euros to 40.8 €/MWh. CO2 prices increased by 2 euros, closing at 86.3 €/EUA. Dutch electricity prices rose by 4 euros, ending at 93.2 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for next year improved by 1 euro, reaching around -15.5 €/MWh.
UK CO2 prices (UKA) surged last week after Prime Minister Starmer announced plans to link the UK CO2 price with the European CO2 price. Following the announcement, the UKA price rose from 35 GBP to 45 GBP. The UK CO2 price had previously been trading at lower levels than its European equivalent.

Weekly changes