Last week, we saw temperatures drop well below the climate average for the first time in a long while. Additionally, most days saw little to no wind, resulting in almost no wind generation in Northwestern Europe. At the same time, the cold weather in France led to a significant increase in power demand. The majority of the demand was met by conventional power plants. In the Netherlands, however, several power plants were not available due to maintenance work on a 380 kV line in the northern part of the country. Additionally, the COBRA cable, connecting the Netherlands to Denmark, was not available for power imports.
The aforementioned partially led to much higher power prices than in the previous week. Last week, the average Dutch power price was 132 €/MWh, almost 30 euros more expensive than the week before. Despite the cold, the day-ahead gas price dropped by almost 2 euros, averaging 43.8 €/MWh.
For the upcoming months, CO2 prices experienced a significant decrease. The CO2 price for the remainder of this year approached 71 €/EUA, and the contract for next year dropped by almost 5 euros to 75.7 €/EUA. TTF also decreased: the gas price for January fell by 4 euros to 43.5 €/MWh. This led to a slight improvement in spark spreads for the upcoming months, which had declined in recent weeks. The spark spread for January improved by around 5 euros to approximately 0 €/MWh, while February’s spread increased by 2 euros to 4.3 €/MWh.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Note: Gas prices are listed in €/MWh (100 €/MWh is equal to 0.97694 €/Nm3, based on a conversion formula/factor 35.17 / 3600 = 0.0097694).

Lange termijn

Belgium’s Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, stated last week that the next government should consider adding another 10 years of nuclear energy, on top of the current extension of 10 years that the government is currently discussing with utility Engie. According to De Croo, the next government should contemplate making it a 20-year extension, as the current government is only considering an extension of 10 years. Moreover, today it was announced that the Belgian government and Engie have reached an agreement on the extension of the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 nuclear reactors.
For the longer term, gas also experienced a downward trend. For both 2024 and 2025, TTF prices dropped by 3.5 and 2 euros, respectively, closing at 43.8 and 42.2 €/MWh. CO2 became almost 5 euros cheaper for both years, with 2024 closing at 75.7 €/EUA and 2025 at 78.6 €/EUA. The Dutch power contract for 2024 became nearly 8 euros cheaper, closing at 103.9 €/MWh.
The clean spark spread for next year remains negative at -7 €/MWh but improved by 60 cents. The dark spread decreased by 4 euros to -1.6 €/MWh.

Weekly changes

Base (€/MWh)

Peak (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Let op: de gasprijzen worden vermeld in €/MWh (100 €/MWh is 0,97694 €/Nm3, gebaseerd op een omrekenformule/factor 35,17 / 3600 = 0,0097694).

CO2 (€/EUA)

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