EUA prices plunge amid the cold weather

In the second week of 2024, temperatures in Northwest Europe dropped significantly. Both in the Netherlands and Germany, temperatures fell below freezing levels on several days. The drop in temperatures led to a sharp increase in electricity demand in France. The French transmission system operator RTE expected the peak power demand to be around 83.5 GW on Wednesday. Despite the substantial increase in French power consumption, there was sufficient availability of nuclear power plants. The total availability of nuclear energy in France exceeded 50 GW, the highest in 3 years.
Gas and coal power plants were the marginal plants for the majority of the hours of last week. Ultimately, the average Dutch spot price was 96.3 €/MWh, about €27 higher than the previous week. The average day-ahead gas price dropped by half a euro to 31.7 €/MWh.
Throughout the week, the question remained whether temperatures would stay low throughout the next couple of weeks. However, the latest weather forecasts indicated a likely return of temperatures in Northwest Europe to the climate average. The temperature forecast for Norway for week 4 increased by about 7 to 8 degrees over the weekend. At the same time, gas prices for the coming months decreased by about €3. Both February and March closed at 32 €/MWh.
CO2 became significantly cheaper. At the beginning of the week, the price dropped sharply, and by the end of the week it was almost €11 cheaper, as the December 2024 contract settled at 65.8 €/EUA. Last month, after the expiration of the December 2023 contract, the CO2 price surged towards €80. Just before that, the CO2 price was trading below €70.
Due to a decrease in CO2 and gas prices, power prices for the coming months dropped. The Dutch power contract for February 2024 dropped by almost €15 to 83.5 €/MWh. March closed €12 lower at 75.8 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for February, which was previously positive, dropped by almost €6 to around -1 €/MWh.