German TSOs: phase out of coal by 2030 is possible

Last week’s weather seemed to be a continuation of the previous week. Temperatures in Northwestern Europe remained relatively high, and there was a limited amount of wind generation. As a result, baseload clean spark spreads were mostly positive, except during the weekend. The average spot price last week was 99.4 €/MWh, compared to 103 €/MWh the previous week. The day-ahead gas price fell slightly and averaged 32.6 €/MWh.
For the coming months, gas became slightly cheaper. October closed one euro lower at 34.5 €/MWh, and November became one and a half euros cheaper, closing at 44.3 €/MWh. CO2 became significantly cheaper as the December 2023 contract dropped by almost 4 euros to 81.5 €/MWh.
The Dutch power contract for October decreased by 4 euros to 92.7 €/MWh. November saw a drop of nearly 7 euros to 116 €/MWh. Spark spreads decreased slightly, but the clean spark spread for November remained positive at 2.3 €/MWh.

According to the four German TSOs, the phase-out of coal-fired power plants in Germany could potentially happen as early as 2030, from a grid congestion perspective. The country would have to rely on power imports from neighboring countries, emphasizing the need for additional capacity in Germany, as previously noted by the German government. However, coal-fired power plants would have to be kept in reserve. The official deadline for phasing out coal in Germany is 2038.
Furthermore, it was announced that the German utility company Steag would close two coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of around 400 MW by November 2024. The company cited staffing issues as the reason it could no longer operate these coal-fired power plants beyond that date. Additionally, Uniper stated that the Heyden coal-fired power plant, which has a capacity of almost 900 MW, will fully close in September of next year. After March 2024, this plant will serve as a reserve power plant. This coal-fired power plant returned to the market last year, along with several others, to help limit gas consumption in Germany.
For next year, the gas price decreased by about one and a half euros to 51 €/MWh. CO2 prices also declined, with the December 2024 contract closing about 4 euros lower at 85.6 €/MWh. The Dutch power contract became approximately 2.5 euros cheaper, settling at 122.2 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for 2024 improved by almost 2 euros but remained negative at -5.7 €/MWh.

Weekly changes