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Last week we discussed that electricity spot prices increased due to a cold period in Western Europe. This week in the market report, we will delve into the fact that spot prices remain high due to low temperatures and below average wind generation in the mainland.

Short term

Low temperature and subpar wind generation prevailed in the mainland last week. The power demand particularly picked up significantly in France due to the increase in the electrical heating demand in French households. Low wind generation kept the residual load high in the mainland and this led to a high amount of gas burn in the power sector. Last week, the Dutch spot prices cleared at a weekly average of €165.4/MWh which is almost €19 higher than a week earlier.

Despite an increase in gas demand last week, the TTF day-ahead gas prices continued to drop. Last week, the TTF day-ahead gas prices were on average €59.5/MWh which is €2.6 lower than a week earlier. Coal prices also dropped and closed at €129/ton which is €35 cheaper compared to a week earlier. The carbon prices on the other hand went up by €4.3 closing at 89.2 €/EUA.

The latest transparency message shows that the return of the EemsEnergyTerminal in the Netherlands has been postponed. The terminal stopped sending out gas on 13 January 2023, initially until today but has now extended the full outage until 6 February 2023. The operator has also mentioned that once it returns, the terminal will be operating at a limited capacity until 1 March 2023. This means the supply of gas in the Netherlands could be lower in the near term than previously expected.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Note: Gas prices are listed in €/MWh (100 €/MWh is equal to 0.97694 €/Nm3, based on a conversion formula/factor 35.17 / 3600 = 0.0097694).

Long term

Compared to week 3, the gas contracts for February, March and April were about €11 cheaper closing at around €55/MWh. The power contracts in the forward market followed a similar trend to that of the gas prices and dropped to lower levels than a week earlier. For instance, the Dutch February baseload power contract fell by €15 and closed at €136/MWh. The 2023 Q2 and Q3 contracts both dropped by €17 and €19 respectively compared to a week earlier. The Clean Spark Spreads (CSS) for the coming months increased but remained negative. For instance, the CSS for February, increased by €5.3 and closed at -1.8 €/MWh.

For 2024, the TTF gas prices fell by around €8 and closed at €61.3/MWh. CO2 became €4.2 more expensive and closed at €93.2/EUA. The Dutch baseload power contract went €24 lower and closed at 153.4 €/MWh. The CSS for 2024 dropped by €10 and closed at 3 €/MWh. The 2024 coal price went down by €29 and closed at 131.3 €/ton. The Clean Dark Spread (CDS) dropped by €17.5, closing at 22.5 €/MWh.

Weekly changes

Base (€/MWh)

Peak (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Note: Gas prices are listed in €/MWh (100 €/MWh is equal to 0.97694 €/Nm3, based on a conversion formula/factor 35.17 / 3600 = 0.0097694).

CO2 (€/EUA)

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