Gas prices increase after potential strikes at Australian LNG production facilities

At the beginning of last week, there was a significant amount of renewable generation in Northwestern Europe. Especially in Germany, there was relatively high wind, causing German prices to be negative for almost the entire day on Tuesday, except for the evening hours. From Wednesday onwards, wind speeds decreased, leading to reduced renewable generation. In the Nordics, prices remained low throughout the week, partially causing prices to fall during the solar hours despite a drop in renewable generation. On average, the Dutch power price was 66.4 €/MWh compared to 71.6 €/MWh the previous week.
The gas price surged last week following news of potential strikes at various LNG production facilities in Australia. The contract for September delivery briefly spiked towards 40 €/MWh but ultimately ended the week at 35.3 €/MWh, more than 6 euros higher than the previous week. October also closed 6 euros higher at 39.2 €/MWh.
CO2 prices increased as well. The contract for December 2023 concluded 3 euros higher at 86.7 €/EUA. The coal price for the September contract rose by 11 euros, closing at 110 €/Ton.
In light of the rise in coal, gas, and CO2 prices, Dutch power forwards also climbed. September saw an increase of over 11 euros, closing at 95.6 €/MWh. October closed 14 euros higher at 106.6 €/MWh. The clean spark spread for September decreased by around 2 euros to -2.6 €/MWh, while October improved by one and a half euros, ultimately reaching 0.9 €/MWh.

Electricity (€/MWh)

Gas (€/MWh)

Note: Gas prices are listed in €/MWh (100 €/MWh is equal to 0.97694 €/Nm3, based on a conversion formula/factor 35.17 / 3600 = 0.0097694).

Lange termijn

The long-term forwards also increased. For 2024, gas became around 2.5 euros more expensive, closing at 51.5 €/MWh. CO2 prices rose by 3 euros, reaching 91 €/EUA. The Dutch power contract for next year went up by about 5 euros, closing at 126.7 €/MWh.
The clean spark spreads for the upcoming years remain consistently negative. The spark spread for next year was -4.2 €/MWh, and for 2025, it was -2.9 €/MWh. On the other hand, the dark spread for next year slightly increased and remained positive at 4.3 €/MWh.